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The US 500 continues to hit new all-time highs within the uptrend. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: US initial jobless claims for last week came in at 231 thousand
• Market impact: this may have a moderately positive effect on equities

US 500 fundamental analysis

US initial jobless claims totalled 231 thousand last week, below the forecast of 241 thousand and the previous reading of 264 thousand. The drop in claims points to an improving labour market, confirming its resilience. For the stock market, the effect is mixed. On the one hand, a strong labour market supports consumer activity, a positive driver for corporate revenues. On the other hand, employment resilience may limit the Federal Reserve’s willingness to pursue further monetary easing, especially given ongoing inflation risks.

A resilient labour market supports earnings in the consumer and financial sectors and reduces the probability of a recession, boosting investor confidence in corporate profitability. At the same time, such data may push the Federal Reserve to adopt a more cautious approach in lowering rates, driving bond yields higher and putting pressure on richly valued sectors, including technology.

US 500 technical analysis

After reaching a new all-time high, the US 500 continues its upward trajectory within an uptrend. The support level is at 6,555.0, while the nearest resistance level is yet to form. The most likely scenario is continued growth, with a target near 6,805.0.

The following scenarios are considered for the US 500 price forecast:

• Pessimistic US 500 scenario: a breakout below the 6,555.0 support level could send the index down to 6,440
• Optimistic US 500 scenario: if the price consolidates above the breached 6,640 resistance level, the index could advance to 6,805.0

Summary

For the US 500, the data can be described as moderately positive in the short term, as it confirms economic resilience but also limits expectations for rapid Fed easing. This means the market may see growth driven by cyclical and consumer companies, while the technology segment will likely react more cautiously. From a technical perspective, the US 500 could extend growth towards 6,805.0.

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The US Tech index continues to grow steadily, reaching fresh all-time highs. The US Tech forecast for next week is positive.

US Tech forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: the Federal Reserve lowered its key rate to 4.25% per annum
• Market impact: this decision has a largely positive effect on the technology sector

US Tech fundamental analysis

The Federal Reserve’s decision to lower the key rate from 4.50% to 4.25%, in line with market expectations, sends a significant signal to US financial markets. The rate cut reflects the Fed’s intention to support economic activity amid slowing GDP growth and labour market weakness. Lower rates reduce borrowing costs for corporations and households, potentially stimulating investment and consumption. However, Jerome Powell’s accompanying comments pointed to persistent inflation risks, partly driven by tariff policy, which tempers excessive investor optimism.

For financial markets, the effect is balanced: liquidity support combines with warnings about structural inflation risks. For the technology sector, the rate cut has a dual impact. On the one hand, cheaper borrowing and lower mortgage rates indirectly support demand for digital goods and services. In addition, high-tech companies with long-term investment programs benefit from lower capital costs.

US Tech technical analysis

Inflationary risks tied to tariff-driven price increases may persist, limiting the scope for aggressive monetary easing. In the short term, the US Tech may deliver moderate growth thanks to easier financing conditions, but the sector’s high sensitivity to inflation expectations and geopolitical risks leaves room for correction.

The US Tech index broke above the previous resistance level at 24,425.0, with a new support line formed at 24,020.0. A new resistance level is yet to form. The uptrend will likely be medium-term, with the nearest upside target at 25,290.0.

The following scenarios are considered for the US Tech price forecast:

• Pessimistic US Tech scenario: a breakout below the 24,020 support level could push the index to 22,985.0
• Optimistic US Tech scenario: if the price consolidates above the previously breached resistance level at 24,425.0, the index could climb to 25,290

Summary

The US equity market received a clear support signal from the Federal Reserve. However, lingering uncertainty over the long-term inflation path and tariff policy implies that the US Tech rally will likely remain moderate and volatile. Investors are shifting focus towards companies with strong balance sheets and the ability to pass costs onto end consumers. The next upside target for the US Tech could be 25,290.0.

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Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem addressed reporters’ questions, offering insights into the central bank’s policy outlook. His remarks came after the BoC lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, a move that markets had broadly anticipated.

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