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EURGBP: ⬆️ Buy – EURGBP reversed from key support level 0.8620 – Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8730 EURGBP currency pair recently reversed up from the support zone between the key support level 0.8620 – which is the lower.

AUD/USD failed to stay in a positive zone and declined below 0.7150. NZD/USD is also moving lower and might extend losses below 0.5800.

The US Tech index has reached another all-time high, marking one of the strongest streaks of trading sessions this year. The US Tech forecast for next week is positive.

US Tech forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: US inflation rate rose to 3.8% year-on-year in April
• Market impact: the effect on the technology sector is mixed

US Tech fundamental analysis

The US CPI release at 3.8% year-on-year, above the forecast of 3.7% and the previous reading of 3.3%, is a negative signal for the US Tech index. Official BLS data shows headline inflation accelerating, with core inflation excluding food and energy also up to 2.8% year-on-year from 2.6% the month before. This fuels concerns that inflationary pressures remain persistent and may force the Federal Reserve to keep a cautious stance on interest rates for longer.

For the US Tech, such news is typically perceived as particularly sensitive, as technology stocks rely heavily on expectations for future earnings growth. When the inflation rate comes in above forecast, investors are more likely to revise their rate and bond yield expectations. A higher cost of money reduces the appeal of growth stocks, which make up a significant portion of the tech sector. As a result, the US Tech index may face short-term pressure even if the fundamental outlook for major tech companies remains strong.

US Tech technical analysis

For the US stock market overall, the reaction may be mildly negative. On the one hand, higher-than-expected inflation does not automatically imply a sharp deterioration in the economy, as some of the price growth may be energy-related. On the other hand, higher prices reduce household purchasing power, raise company costs, and add uncertainty around corporate earnings. If investors conclude the Federal Reserve will need to keep rates elevated for longer, this can cap upside in the broader market and reduce demand for equities.

The US Tech index has reached another all-time high. The 29,395.0 resistance level has been broken, with the nearest support level located at 28,640.0. The trend appears strong enough to expect another all-time high; otherwise, a wide sideways range may form. If the rally extends, the next upside target could be 30,545.0.

The US Tech price forecast outlines the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic US Tech scenario: a breakout below the 28,640.0 support level could send the index down to 27,525.0
• Optimistic US Tech scenario: if prices consolidate above the previously breached resistance level at 29,395.0, the index could climb to 30,545.0

Summary

A higher-than-expected CPI reading increases inflation concerns and reduces the likelihood of rapid Fed easing. This is especially important for the technology sector, as valuations are sensitive to rates and expectations of future earnings. The most likely market reaction is increased investor caution, pressure on growth stocks, and a potential shift of capital towards more defensive or commodity-linked sectors. The next upside target could be 30,545.0.

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The US 30 index remains in an uptrend, but the pace is slowing. The US 30 forecast for today is positive.

US 30 forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: US Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 115 thousand in April
• Market impact: the data has a positive impact on the stock market

US 30 fundamental analysis

The US Nonfarm Payrolls data came in noticeably stronger than expected, with the US economy adding 115 thousand jobs compared to a forecast of 65 thousand. This suggests the labour market remains resilient, despite signs of cooling compared with the previous 185 thousand. For the US 30 index, such data can have a mixed, but overall moderately positive effect. On the one hand, stronger employment confirms the resilience of the US economy, supports consumer spending, and reduces the risk of a sharp deterioration in business activity.

If employment stays strong, the Federal Reserve may keep a cautious stance on rates for longer, especially if inflation remains above target. In this case, the upside in the US 30 could be limited, since higher rates increase borrowing costs for companies and make equities less attractive than bonds. As a result, the initial market reaction may be volatile: investors will weigh what matters more – economic resilience or the risk of a longer period of restrictive Fed policy.

US 30 technical analysis

The US 30 index has completed a correction after the start of an uptrend. The nearest support level has formed at 48,920.0, while the resistance level lies at 50,040.0. Quotes are currently moving towards all-time highs. If the current momentum continues, the next upside target could be 50,535.0.

The US 30 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic US 30 scenario: a breakout below the 48,920.0 support level could push the index down to 47,870.0
• Optimistic US 30 scenario: a breakout above the 50,040.0 resistance level could boost the index to 50,535.0

Summary

The current data could be moderately positive for the US 30 and the US stock market if investors focus on economic resilience and a lower recession risk. However, upside potential may be limited by concerns that a strong labour market will allow the Fed to keep a cautious stance on rates for longer. This report is most supportive for financial, industrial, and consumer sectors, while real estate and some highly valued tech companies may see a more restrained effect. The nearest upside target could be 50,535.0.

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The fundamental backdrop for EUR/USD in early May is shaped by diverging monetary policy expectations on both sides of the Atlantic.