News

ICYMI - U.S., Switzerland near deal to cut 39% import tariff, Trump confirms

Posted on: Nov 11 2025

U.S. and Switzerland move toward tariff deal as Trump signals rate cut.

ICYMI, news from Monday US time.

The United States and Switzerland are negotiating a deal to reduce the 39% tariff Washington imposed on Swiss imports in August, President Donald Trump confirmed Monday, saying discussions were progressing but that he had “not yet set any number.”

Speaking in the Oval Office, Trump said the administration was “working on something to help Switzerland,” acknowledging that the U.S. had hit the Alpine nation hard but describing it as “a good ally” whose success Washington wanted to support.

The Swiss government declined to comment on the talks after a Bloomberg report suggested a deal could be reached within two weeks, potentially cutting the tariff rate to around 15%.

  • talks are ongoing and we do not comment further said a spokesperson for the Swiss Department of Economic Affairs

The 39% tariff, among the highest introduced under Trump’s global trade overhaul, has weighed heavily on Swiss exporters, particularly in luxury watches, machine tools, and chocolate, for which the United States is one of Switzerland’s largest markets. A rate reduction would ease pressure on these key industries and could mark one of the most significant tariff rollbacks since the administration began reworking trade relationships in 2024.

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A U.S.-Swiss tariff deal would ease strain on Switzerland’s key export sectors and signal potential softening in Trump’s broader trade stance, supporting sentiment across European industrial and luxury markets. CHF supportive.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
US 30 forecast: the index enters a correction, but the uptrend remains intact

Posted on: Nov 06 2025

The uptrend in the US 30 index remains strong, suggesting the potential for another all-time high. The US 30 forecast for today is positive.

US 30 forecast: key trading points

  • Recent data: US ISM manufacturing prices for October came in at 58.0
  • Market impact: the data has a moderately positive effect on the equity market

US 30 fundamental analysis

The ongoing US government shutdown has now become the longest in history after the Senate once again failed to pass a funding bill yesterday. Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing prices index came in at 58.0, below the forecast of 62.4 and the previous reading of 61.9. This means that prices paid by manufacturers for raw materials and components are still rising (as the index remains above 50.0), but the pace of growth has slowed significantly and fallen short of expectations. This is effectively a disinflationary signal from the manufacturing sector.

For the US 30 index, the data is moderately positive. Large industrial companies benefit from easing cost pressures and potentially lower discount rates. However, the short-term reaction will depend on whether investors interpret the data as primarily disinflationary or as a sign of weaker end demand.

US ISM manufacturing prices paid: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/ism-manufacturing-prices

US 30 technical analysis

The US 30 index is undergoing a correction, but the broader trend remains bullish. The resistance level has formed at 47,990.0, while support is located near 46,475.0. It is difficult to say how long this trend will last. The next upside target is set at 48,755.0.

The US 30 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

  • Pessimistic US 30 scenario: a breakout below the 46,475.0 support level could send the index down to 44,565.0
  • Optimistic US 30 scenario: a breakout above the 47,990.0 resistance level could drive the index to 48,755.0
US 30 technical analysis for 5 November 2025

Summary

Overall, the latest ISM manufacturing prices release eases inflationary and bond yield pressures, creating a more supportive environment for a revaluation of US 30 equities. However, the scale of the rally is likely to remain limited until other business activity indicators confirm that slower price growth is not accompanied by a sharp drop in real demand. The next upside target could be 48,755.0.

Open Account

US & China check the key "trade war detente" boxes. Meanwhile, market narrowness a concern.

Posted on: Oct 31 2025

US-China press the pause button on trade hostilities. Next?

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.

Today’s Links

WSJ on “tens of thousands” of jobs disappearing, displaced by AI The article delivers a lot less than it promises and between the lines, it looks like the US economic transformation will create demand for other kinds of jobs outside the office. But it is no doubt that in many places, wrenching changes are afoot, especially for the gentleman profiled and his heart-breaking story - he could be a candidate for Turchin’s revolution (link below).

The trader who never spoke…until now. If you haven’t already read it, pick up a copy of Jack Schwager’s 1989 classic Market Wizards book that interviews an impressive cast of successful traders from the time. The specific market dynamics have moved on since then, of course, but the book contains so many nuggets of wisdom for the trader. One of the most compelling interviews in the book was with Ed Seykota, a very early and successful systematic trader, not to mention eccentric. One of his early acolytes was David Druz, someone who has been active in markets for decades but steered clear of the spotlight, until now. Top Traders Unplugged managed to sit the guy down for an interview - I am looking forward to this listen.

Amazon moving further down the enshittification curve Cory Doctorow posts scathing commentary on Amazon’s job reduction announcements and what they may really be about - Amazon becoming “too big to care”. Ouch.

This is unsustainable, when’s the violent revolution? Peter Turchin of “cliodynamics” fame weighs in on the Thoughtful Money on how things may develop in even revolutionary fashion in the US if the scale of inequality persists without escape valves that flatten the extremes again. I like many of his observations on the dynamics of what is going on, if not fully engaging in his framework. In a related story, the Pentagon has ordered states to prepare rapid-response outfits to be trained in crowd control and civil disobedience.

Chart of the Day - S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF

The chart is of Invesco’s S&P 500 equal weight ETF - others, including in UCITS forms are available (XTrackers has several that are listed on European exchanges). Interesting that yesterday saw one of the worst days for the average stock in the S&P 500 since the October 10 meltdown when Trump threatened the 100% tariffs on China. Also worth noting that the lows in this ETF price yesterday were near levels that traded way back in late July. In the case of the megacap heavy market cap-weighted S&P 500, we have advanced almost 8% since then. This increasingly narrow market advance should be at least a near term concern for the bulls, even if the narrative is that have cleared the decks of event risks once we get beyond earnings season here and can enjoy the “usual” end-of-year rally.

Source: Saxo

Weekly chart

Source: Saxo

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