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Baidu: ⬆️ Buy – Baidu reversed from support zone – Likely to rise to resistance level 90.00. Baidu recently reversed from the support zone between the major long-term support level 78.60 (which has been reversing the price from the end of.

TRUMP is a popular meme coin, dedicated to Donald Trump. In this article, we explore analysts' projections for TRUMP coin’s future in 2025, 2026, and beyond.

• Major US indices are closing sharply to the downside with declines near by 5.5% – 6%
• Crude oil settles at $61.99
• Geopolitics: Russia military strikes energy facility in Kherson on Friday
• EU Trade commissioner Sepcovic: US tariffs are damaging and unjustified
• UK offered to cut tariffs on beef and fish.
• Trump: Will sign executive order to keep TikTok open for 75 more days
• WH CEA Chair Miran: Tax cuts and deregulation ahead
• Washington Post: Trump chose the formula for the tariffs
• Vietnam's general secretary: Vietnam ready to cut tariff to 0
• Powell Q&A: People are still experiencing a high price level
• Powell: Larger tariffs risk higher inflation and slower growth. Will wait for clarity
• Trump says it would be a perfect time for Powell to cut rates
• Trump indicates he is in deal mode after call with Vietnam
• Trump: China played it wrong, they panicked -- the one thing they cannot afford to do
• Trump writes that "my policies will never change"
• Canada March employment change -32.6K versus 10.0K estimate
• US March non-farm payrolls +228K vs +135K expected
• ForexLive European FX news wrap: China counter-tariffs amplify market rout
• Risk-off flows intensify ahead of US trading

The March 2025 U.S. jobs report delivered a strong upside surprise with non-farm payrolls rising by 228K, well above the 135K expected, and supported by a +2K net revision to previous months. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, slightly higher than forecast, though the participation rate improved to 62.5%, suggesting more workers re-entered the labor force. Wage growth held steady, with average hourly earnings rising 0.3% m/m and 3.8% y/y, slightly softer than last month. Private sector hiring was solid at +209K, while full-time jobs rebounded strongly by +459K after a massive drop last month. The leisure and hospitality sector led gains with +43K jobs, bouncing back from a weather-suppressed February. Despite the upbeat data, markets are showing a disconnect, as the U.S. dollar ticked modestly higher, while rate markets still price in over 5 Fed cuts this year—highlighting ongoing tension between labor market strength and inflationary concerns.

Details of the report showed.

• Non-farm payrolls: +228K vs. +135K expected (Prior revised to +117K from +151K)

• Two-month net revision: +2K

• Unemployment rate: 4.2% vs. 4.1% expected (Unrounded: 4.1519% vs. 4.1396% prior)

• Participation rate: 62.5% vs. 62.4% prior

• U6 underemployment rate: 7.9% vs. 8.0% prior

• Average hourly earnings (m/m): +0.3% (in line)

• Average hourly earnings (y/y): +3.8% vs. +3.9% expected (prior +4.0%)

• Average weekly hours: 34.2 vs. 34.1 prior

• Private payrolls: +209K vs. +140K expected

• Manufacturing payrolls: +1K vs. +4K expected (prior revised to +8K)

• Government jobs: +19K vs. +11K prior

• Household survey: +201K vs. -588K prior

• Full-time jobs: +459K vs. -1.193M prior

• Leisure & hospitality: +43K vs. -17K prior

Prior to the US jobs report, China notes reciprocal tariffs against the US. That sent the AUD and the NZD lower. They were the weakest of the major currencies today versus the US dollar (the US dollar rose by 3%and 2% respectively). The dollar gain the most versus the JPY and the CHF.

The US dollar is closing the week mixed versus the major currencies. The USD was higher vs the GBP, AUD and NZD, but was lower vs the EUR, JPY, CHF and the CAD.

Below is a graphical look at the percentage changes versus the greenback for the major currencies.

In the US debt market yields were sharply lower earlier today ahead of the US jobs report, but rebounded higher after the better-than-expected data.

The levels going into the close are showing:

• 2- year yield 3.678%, -4.6 basis points. The low yield for the day reached 3.467%
• 5-year yield 3.727%, -3.1 basis points. The low yield for the day reached 3.526%.
• 10 year yield 4.013%, -4.2 basis points. The low yield for the day reached 3.860%
• 30 year yield 4.426%, -5.7 basis points. The low yield for the day reached 4.331%.

Even though yields are well off their lows for the day, the current changes for the week are still down 22 to 26 basis points across the yield curve. Below is the high basis point change, the low basis point change and the current basis point change.

US stocks fell sharply for the second consecutive day.

The final numbers are showing:

• Dow industrial average -2231.07 points or -5.5% or 38314.86
• S&P index -322.44 points or -5.97% at 5074.05..
• NASDAQ index -962.82 points or -5.82% and 15587.79.
• Russell 2000-83.51 points or -4.37% and 1827.03

The trading week for each of the major indices was the worst going back to the 2020 pandemic

• Dow industrial average fell -7.86%.
• S&P index for -9.08%
• NASDAQ index fell 10.02%
• Russell 2000-9.70%

Oil prices also moved sharply lower this week. For the trading week, the price of crude oil fell -12.19%. That is its worst week since a 12.72% decline during the week of March 13, 2023.

The price of crude oil fell on the back of the tariff news and expectations of slower global growth. In addition, ​the OPEC+ alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, announced a larger-than-expected increase in oil production. Starting in May 2025, the group will boost output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd), effectively implementing three months' worth of planned increases in a single month.

The price of WTI crude oil is settling at $61.99 down $4.96 or 7.40%.

Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all imports, with higher rates for major trading partners, including 34% on China and 20% on the EU.

'Risk' was slammed lower, with yen and gold benefitting.

EUR/USD trade under 1.0820 and has now recovered to above 1.0910 as I post.

This is only going to be a taste of the volatility to come in the hours ahead as more of Asia comes on line and then Europe/UK trade responds. I'd be wary of further upside from here.

Updates:

• USD/JPY is around 147.90
• gold is around US$3164

Shortly after the election, markets were in a great mood and it's easy to see why. You had a Republican sweep with the promise to extend current tax cuts and maybe even deliver more. Since then, the tough math on the US deficit has eroded some of that optimism and Congress hasn't moved particularly quick. That's raising some questions on the fiscal front but two other questions loom large.

1) The Trump Put

In his first term, Trump was obsessed with the stock market. Even in the depths of covid, he treated it like a personal scorecard, always bragging about it or blaming declines on others. Ultimately, it led to nice gains throughout his term despite all the usual Trump rhetoric. The Trump put was the idea that he didn't really mean most of the things he said and that keeping stock markets and GDP growth high was the overriding goal. That was the Trump put.

In his first two months in office, Trump 2.0 has been different. Members of his cabinet are talking about a detox and short-term pain. He still references the stock market but is also doing and threatening things that are problematic. The 10% drop in the S&P 500 since February speaks for itself.

I don't think the Trump put is gone but it certainly doesn't look as strong.

2) The Fed put

In his first term, Trump started with relatively low stock market valuations and ample fiscal space. He played that hand well. This time, he arrived with high valuations and a high deficit -- not so pretty. One improvement though was the Fed, the autumn cuts put some juice into the economy but more importantly, with Fed funds at 4.25-4.50%, there was plenty of room to cut. The market was also seeing falling inflation and a long runway, particularly if anything went wrong in the economy.

Now it's less clear that ammunition is available. This week we saw the Fed's Musalem crack open the door to rate hikes, while Daly indicated she was losing confidence in her forecast for two cuts this year. Today's inflation numbers were slightly hotter than expected and there is a growing possibility that the Fed won't be able to cut at all -- even if the economy stumbles. The Fed put might be gone.

Now much of this is Trump's own doing with tariffs but it's illustrative of why stock markets are struggling and could fall further.