News

AI leading equity market nosedive. Also: USD no safe haven?

Posted on: Nov 15 2025

It's looking pretty ugly out there and the USD isn't providing any shelter.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.

Today’s Links

The FX Trader from yours truly today - while the US dollar did not serve as a safe haven in yesterday’s sell-off, I am still not entirely willing to write it off as a safe haven on an aggravated further deleveraging across global markets - did not mention that in today’s piece.

On the other hand, times are changing in a gradual sense for the US dollar and US markets, possibly, according to Tavi Costa, who says that US markets are overvalued and that the US behaving more like an emerging market when its bonds lead bond market weakness on a risk-off day. Great chart on his X post on this.

I missed this one from Cory Doctorow on the whole “10% of Meta profits from fraudulent ads, etc” - Meta: too big to care. Indeed, as my employer hires an outside agency to detect when our names are being abused and has in recent days come across a fresh set of impersonators gearing up on Meta’s platforms using one of my colleague’s identities for who knows what kind of shenanigans.

Weekend downtime hearty reccos Book recommendation - Don’t read the blurb - just get it and listen/read it. I listened to this on Audio book format. That, and the fact that I had no idea what it was about (someone whose taste I trust in recommended it and I simply downloaded and started listening) made this thing doubly impactful and thought-provoking. There is a financial market angle to it, for sure, but so much more - a tour de force. The less you know about it, the more you will like it: just trust me on this one - if you have access to audiobooks, make this your next listen.

Weekend downtime listen: Philip Glass’ Akhnaten is genius, covering Akhnaten’s (originally Amenhotep IV) ascension to the throne in Ancient Egypt and his marriage to Nefertiti and then downfall - it’s a fascinating story and an amazing, ethereal opera - the Akhnaten appearances, especially the scene with Nefertiti, are spellbinding.

Chart of the Day - Oracle and Oracle Bonds

Oracle stock has been the poster child of of the AI data center buildout and capital expenditures boom and bust mentality in recent months - zooming to incredible heights on its over-the-top earnings call in early September as it boasted of its intent to invest hundreds of billion in new AI data center capacity. The stock has since erased all of the enthusiasm and then some on concerns that assets in these data centers have a very short life expectancy, not to mention whether the AI training and inference spend from by the data centers’ customers will yield the hoped for productivity gains and profits. The “circularity” problem with investing in OpenAI is also an issue. Oracle is the most aggressive among large listed companies in pouring funds (and borrowing funds) for investment in AI infrastructure and bears close watching. While its old core business is very profitable - if stagnant to slightly shrinking - and it is hard to imagine Oracle going belly up, even with its now enormous USD 100 billion in debt, it is worth noting that not only is the enthusiasm for its share price gone, but concerns about the quality of Oracle bonds is rising. This can be seen in the spiking CDS price, which shows the odds of a default rising, if still fairly modest. For perspective, a price of 100 for 5-year CDS suggests an approximate risk of default of 7-9% (with the important assumption that the recovery rate is 40%.). If a company on the scale of Oracle either gets in trouble financially on its commitment to AI spending, or merely even changes its tune or intentions on spending to avoid digging itself into further trouble, there is the risk of network effects driving a reduction in the overall AI capex rate, which in turn is a powerful risk for the very AI-exposed equity market and even to the very AI-exposed US economy as well. Below: the Oracle share price in blue (200-day moving average currently near 209 BTW), the CDS price in salmon/coral and the yield on 2053 (!) Oracle 5.55% coupon bonds.

Source: Bloomberg

Questions and comments, please!

We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at [email protected].
This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance. The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.
Saxo Market Call
Saxo Bank
Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex
US 30 forecast: the index is on the rise

Posted on: Nov 13 2025

The US 30 index shows strong upward momentum, with prices ready to break above the current resistance level and reach a new all-time high. The US 30 forecast for today is positive.

US 30 forecast: key trading points

  • Recent data: US ISM manufacturing PMI came in at 48.7 in October
  • Market impact: the data has a moderately positive effect on the equity market

US 30 fundamental analysis

The US ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 in October, below the forecast of 49.4 and the previous reading of 49.1. A value below 50.0 indicates a continued contraction in manufacturing activity, and the fact that the indicator came in weaker than expected and lower than the prior level suggests that the slowdown in production is slightly deeper than the market anticipated. For the US equity market, this creates a mixed signal. Weaker manufacturing data raises concerns about the pace of economic growth, potentially prompting investors to act more cautiously towards cyclical stocks such as machinery producers, automakers, and certain industrial and materials corporations.

For the US 30 index, which has a significant share of industrial, financial, and large consumer companies, the impact will be particularly noticeable through the industrial segment. Shares of major manufacturers and related firms may come under pressure due to expectations of weaker demand and lower margins. However, optimism following the end of the government shutdown continues to dominate market sentiment.

US ISM manufacturing PMI: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/business-confidence

US 30 technical analysis

The US 30 index has completed its correction phase and is now preparing to break above the 47,990.0 resistance level, while the support zone is located near 46,475.0. It remains uncertain how long this upward momentum will last, but the next target level is set around 48,755.0.

The US 30 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

  • Pessimistic US 30 scenario: a breakout below the 46,475.0 support level could push the index down to 44,565.0
  • Optimistic US 30 scenario: a breakout above the 47,990.0 resistance level could propel the index to 48,755.0
US 30 technical analysis for 12 November 2025

Summary

Overall, this PMI release pushes the US 30 index towards a moderately negative or neutral reaction, as it raises concerns about the industrial cycle while reinforcing expectations of a softer Federal Reserve policy, reducing the risk of sharp declines in equities. The further trajectory of the US 30 index will depend on whether upcoming indicators, including employment, inflation, and services data, confirm a broader economic slowdown or indicate that current weakness is restricted to manufacturing. From a technical perspective, the next upside target for the US 30 index could be 48,755.0.

Open Account

ICYMI - U.S., Switzerland near deal to cut 39% import tariff, Trump confirms

Posted on: Nov 11 2025

U.S. and Switzerland move toward tariff deal as Trump signals rate cut.

ICYMI, news from Monday US time.

The United States and Switzerland are negotiating a deal to reduce the 39% tariff Washington imposed on Swiss imports in August, President Donald Trump confirmed Monday, saying discussions were progressing but that he had “not yet set any number.”

Speaking in the Oval Office, Trump said the administration was “working on something to help Switzerland,” acknowledging that the U.S. had hit the Alpine nation hard but describing it as “a good ally” whose success Washington wanted to support.

The Swiss government declined to comment on the talks after a Bloomberg report suggested a deal could be reached within two weeks, potentially cutting the tariff rate to around 15%.

  • talks are ongoing and we do not comment further said a spokesperson for the Swiss Department of Economic Affairs

The 39% tariff, among the highest introduced under Trump’s global trade overhaul, has weighed heavily on Swiss exporters, particularly in luxury watches, machine tools, and chocolate, for which the United States is one of Switzerland’s largest markets. A rate reduction would ease pressure on these key industries and could mark one of the most significant tariff rollbacks since the administration began reworking trade relationships in 2024.

---

A U.S.-Swiss tariff deal would ease strain on Switzerland’s key export sectors and signal potential softening in Trump’s broader trade stance, supporting sentiment across European industrial and luxury markets. CHF supportive.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
US 30 forecast: the index enters a correction, but the uptrend remains intact

Posted on: Nov 06 2025

The uptrend in the US 30 index remains strong, suggesting the potential for another all-time high. The US 30 forecast for today is positive.

US 30 forecast: key trading points

  • Recent data: US ISM manufacturing prices for October came in at 58.0
  • Market impact: the data has a moderately positive effect on the equity market

US 30 fundamental analysis

The ongoing US government shutdown has now become the longest in history after the Senate once again failed to pass a funding bill yesterday. Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing prices index came in at 58.0, below the forecast of 62.4 and the previous reading of 61.9. This means that prices paid by manufacturers for raw materials and components are still rising (as the index remains above 50.0), but the pace of growth has slowed significantly and fallen short of expectations. This is effectively a disinflationary signal from the manufacturing sector.

For the US 30 index, the data is moderately positive. Large industrial companies benefit from easing cost pressures and potentially lower discount rates. However, the short-term reaction will depend on whether investors interpret the data as primarily disinflationary or as a sign of weaker end demand.

US ISM manufacturing prices paid: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/ism-manufacturing-prices

US 30 technical analysis

The US 30 index is undergoing a correction, but the broader trend remains bullish. The resistance level has formed at 47,990.0, while support is located near 46,475.0. It is difficult to say how long this trend will last. The next upside target is set at 48,755.0.

The US 30 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

  • Pessimistic US 30 scenario: a breakout below the 46,475.0 support level could send the index down to 44,565.0
  • Optimistic US 30 scenario: a breakout above the 47,990.0 resistance level could drive the index to 48,755.0
US 30 technical analysis for 5 November 2025

Summary

Overall, the latest ISM manufacturing prices release eases inflationary and bond yield pressures, creating a more supportive environment for a revaluation of US 30 equities. However, the scale of the rally is likely to remain limited until other business activity indicators confirm that slower price growth is not accompanied by a sharp drop in real demand. The next upside target could be 48,755.0.

Open Account

US & China check the key "trade war detente" boxes. Meanwhile, market narrowness a concern.

Posted on: Oct 31 2025

US-China press the pause button on trade hostilities. Next?

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.

Today’s Links

WSJ on “tens of thousands” of jobs disappearing, displaced by AI The article delivers a lot less than it promises and between the lines, it looks like the US economic transformation will create demand for other kinds of jobs outside the office. But it is no doubt that in many places, wrenching changes are afoot, especially for the gentleman profiled and his heart-breaking story - he could be a candidate for Turchin’s revolution (link below).

The trader who never spoke…until now. If you haven’t already read it, pick up a copy of Jack Schwager’s 1989 classic Market Wizards book that interviews an impressive cast of successful traders from the time. The specific market dynamics have moved on since then, of course, but the book contains so many nuggets of wisdom for the trader. One of the most compelling interviews in the book was with Ed Seykota, a very early and successful systematic trader, not to mention eccentric. One of his early acolytes was David Druz, someone who has been active in markets for decades but steered clear of the spotlight, until now. Top Traders Unplugged managed to sit the guy down for an interview - I am looking forward to this listen.

Amazon moving further down the enshittification curve Cory Doctorow posts scathing commentary on Amazon’s job reduction announcements and what they may really be about - Amazon becoming “too big to care”. Ouch.

This is unsustainable, when’s the violent revolution? Peter Turchin of “cliodynamics” fame weighs in on the Thoughtful Money on how things may develop in even revolutionary fashion in the US if the scale of inequality persists without escape valves that flatten the extremes again. I like many of his observations on the dynamics of what is going on, if not fully engaging in his framework. In a related story, the Pentagon has ordered states to prepare rapid-response outfits to be trained in crowd control and civil disobedience.

Chart of the Day - S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF

The chart is of Invesco’s S&P 500 equal weight ETF - others, including in UCITS forms are available (XTrackers has several that are listed on European exchanges). Interesting that yesterday saw one of the worst days for the average stock in the S&P 500 since the October 10 meltdown when Trump threatened the 100% tariffs on China. Also worth noting that the lows in this ETF price yesterday were near levels that traded way back in late July. In the case of the megacap heavy market cap-weighted S&P 500, we have advanced almost 8% since then. This increasingly narrow market advance should be at least a near term concern for the bulls, even if the narrative is that have cleared the decks of event risks once we get beyond earnings season here and can enjoy the “usual” end-of-year rally.

Source: Saxo

Weekly chart

Source: Saxo

Questions and comments, please!

We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at [email protected].
This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance. The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.
Saxo Market Call
Saxo Bank
Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex