News

The US Tech stock index remains in a strong uptrend and is set to reach new all-time highs. The US Tech forecast for next week is positive.

US Tech forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: US initial jobless claims for last week came in at 226 thousand
• Market impact: current data signals a weakening labour market, which negatively impacts the stock market

US Tech fundamental analysis

As of 7 August 2025, US initial jobless claims totalled 226 thousand, above the forecast of 221 thousand and the previous reading of 219 thousand. The stock market may react negatively, as rising claims are often seen as a sign of an economic slowdown and potential risks to corporate earnings. The financial and industrial sectors are likely to be hit the hardest.

However, the technology sector (US Tech) could see a moderately positive boost. A rise in unemployment may heighten expectations of Federal Reserve policy easing, which benefits growth stocks, particularly tech companies with high debt levels and interest rate sensitivity. Nevertheless, if unemployment continues to rise, it could lead to weaker consumer demand and investment activity, negatively affecting IT companies.

US Tech technical analysis

The increase in jobless claims could support the US technology sector in the short term due to falling bond yields and expectations of a softer Fed policy. However, prolonged deterioration in the labour market could weigh on corporate revenues, especially in consumer and advertising segments. The market’s reaction will depend on whether this data is seen as a one-off deviation or the start of a new phase of economic weakness.

The US Tech fell below the previous support level of 23,260.0, forming new resistance at 23,580.0 and nearest support around 22,650.0. The index is moving within a corrective downward channel, which will likely remain short-term, with the nearest downside target at 22,905.0.

The following scenarios are considered for the US Tech price forecast:

• Pessimistic US Tech scenario: a breakout below the 22,650.0 support level could push the index down to 22,080.0
• Optimistic US Tech scenario: a breakout above the 23,580.0 resistance level could drive the index to 23,900.0

Summary

The rise in US initial jobless claims to 226 thousand (above forecast and previous reading) has a mixed but potentially positive impact on the US Tech index, particularly in the short term. However, if the labour market continues to weaken and the Federal Reserve does not cut rates, technology stocks could come under pressure. The US Tech index has entered a downtrend, with the next downside target possibly at 22,080.0.

• Major US indices close lower on tariffs, jobs, nuclear subs and a firing
• Why are jobs revised and is there a better way? I think so. It starts with the data.
• Fed Gov. Adriana Kugler announces her resignation from the Fed Board effective August 8
• Trump: Jobs data is manipulated lower. The economy is booming but rates should be lower.
• Baker Hughes oil rig count -5 at 410
• Uncertainty Looms: U.S. Jobs Report shifts risk to economy toward unemployment
• Trump:Positions two nuclear submarines in "appropriate regions" due to inflamatory remarks
• European indices close sharply lower and down for the week
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 growth estimate falls to 2.1% from 2.3%
• US government turmoil stalls thousands of export approvals
• Fed's Bostic on CNBC: The revisions showed that the labor market is slowing down
• US construction spending for June MoM -0.4% versus 0% expected
• US ISM manufacturing index for July 48.0 versus 49.5 estimate
• University of Michigan final sentiment for July 61.7 vs 62.0 preliminary
• S&P Global Manufacturing July PMI final 49.8 versus 49.5 preliminary
• White House: Switzerland refused to make any meaningful concessions on trade barriers
• Fed's Hammack (2026 voter): NFP report was disappointing but healthy labor market.
• Swiss Pres. Keller: Government disappointed by US tariffs imposed on country
• Trump: Too little, Too late. Jerome
• US nonfarm payroll rises by 73K vs 110 K estimate/Unemployment rate 4.2%. Big revisions.
• Reuters source likely to approve another production hike on Sunday
• USTR Greer: Will be finishing paperwork on deals over the next week's/months
• Fed's Waller and Bowman comment on their dissent to this week's policy decision
• investingLive European markets wrap: Stocks stumble, dollar steady ahead of US jobs report
• Trump keeps up with the Powell bashing again today

The July nonfarm payrolls report showed just 73K jobs added, sharply missing the 110K estimate, with major downward revisions to prior months:.

• May was revised down from 144,000 to 19,000---> -125,000
• June was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000 ---> -133,000

The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1% last month.

The sharp revisions led to the dismissal of the BLS Commisioner ('You're fired!") with Trump saying:

The reality is the 818,000-job downward revision was announced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on August 21, 2024 - not on November 15 right after the election. It reflected a preliminary benchmark adjustment showing that payrolls between March 2023 and March 2024 were overstated by that amount.

August 21...November 15... You can do and say anything when you are the President these days.

Earlier the pink slip was also given on TruthSocial (or announced to the world).

The "major mistake" wasn't really a mistake but a revision of the data, which happens because of the nuances of the data collection mainly. I spoke to the issues and potential solutions in this post here.

In addition to the US jobs report, the other data was not particularly good. Construction spending was -0.4% versus 0.0% estimate. ISM Manufacturing was lower at 48.0 versus 49.5. Finally, the University of Michigan sentiment dipped to 61.7 from 61.8 preliminary with the 1-year inflation ticking up to 4.5% from 4.4% preliminary but the five year inflation expectations falling to 3.4% from 3.6%.

As if that wasn't enough, Pres. Trump announced that he was positioning US nuclear submarines in the "appropriate regions", just in case the foolish inflammatory statements from Russia's Medvedev are more than just that. I guess it is like sending in the National Guard into LA, but on a bigger scale.

All of that - and the start of the August 1 tariffs with the Canada rate set at 35% and Switzerland set at 39% - led to stocks moving lower. The NASDAQ index fell -2.24%. The Russell 2000 also fell more than -2% with a decline of -2.03%. Major indices also closed lower for the week

US yields did move sharply lower (price's higher) as result of the weak data with the two-year down -23.7 basis points. The market is pricing in a September cut, with another one scheduled before year's end. The 5-year yield fell by 20.5 basis points, and the 10 year fell -14.4 basis points to 4.215% – its lowest rate since April 28.

The US dollar did move sharply to the downside with the USDJPY down -2.26% (that was helped by flight to safety into the JPY). The dollar fell by -1.5% vs the EUR and by -1.00% vs the CHF. Versus the other major currencies:

• CAD -0.49%
• AUD -0.65%
• NZD -0.49%
• GBP -0.55%

Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker was revised lower to 2.1% growth for Q3, adding to signs of a slowing economy.

Feds Waller and Bowman explained their decision for the dissent to lower rates (the Fed should move to neutral and not be restrictive) at the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday, and were vindicated by the data today.

Fed's Bostic kept a stiff upper lip in regard to his projections for one cut in 2025, but acknowledged that the risks were skewed back toward equality for inflation and employment, and that he would have to reevaluate is view given the new data.

Fed's Kugler announced that she will be stepping down from her position as governor on August 8 which explains her absence "for personal reasons" from the vote on Wednesday. That also gives Pres. Trump the opportunity to appoint a new - more dovish - Fed Governor (Hassett perhaps?).

Meanwhile, European and Swiss officials expressed disappointment over U.S. tariff actions, and the White House confirmed Switzerland refused to make progress on trade barriers.

Eyes this weekend will turn to Sunday’s expected OPEC+ production guidance. Rumors had it that they would increase production by 549,000 BPD. Oil prices moved lower by over $2.00 to $67.25.

Thank you for your support this week. Have a good weekend.

President Trump Announces Trade Deal With EU, 15% Tariff on Imports; US Stock Indices Rise Strongly; FOMC Meeting Awaits, Rate Hold Expected

• US stock indices close higher with the S&P and NASDAQ indices at new records again
• Trump: We will see if we can make deal with EU on Sunday.
• Crude oil settles at $65.16
• It will be a tidal wave of earnings and economic data next week.
• Baker Hughes oil rig count -7 at 415
• EUs Von der Leyen: Will meet with Pres. Trump in Scotland on Sunday
• European indices close mixed to end the trading week
• Australia to import US beef for the first time
• Canada May budget balance C$-0.23 billion vs surplus $1.17 billion in May 2024
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 remains steady at 2.4%
• More Trump: Meeting UK PM tonight. may even approve a trade deal. GBPUSD is lower.
• Trump: When you have a strong dollar you can't sell anything
• Reuters Poll: Bank of Canada will cut overnight rate to 2.25% or lower by end of year
• Trump: There is a 50-50 chance of a deal with the EU. Powell may be ready to cut rates
• WSJ: Companies are absorbing tariff costs so far
• Reuters: OPEC+ panel is reportedly likely to keep oil policy steady
• US advanced durable goods sales for June -9.3% versus -10.8% estimate
• ECB's Nagel: Holding rates makes sense after eight cuts
• The USD is higher to start the day. What do the technical levels tell investors/traders
• investingLive European markets wrap: Dollar bounces, regional stocks and gold stutter
• What are the interest rates expectations for the major central banks?

The US dollars mostly higher versus the major currencies. The U.S. dollar continues to strengthen, approaching a recent two-week high, boosted by improving trade sentiment and stable Treasury yields

Before boarding his flight to the UK for a work vacation this morning, President Trump made a series of remarks touching on trade, currency policy, and foreign affairs:

• On the U.S. dollar, Trump emphasized: “When you have a strong dollar, you can’t sell anything,” but added, “I will never say I want a weak dollar.” He criticized China and Japan for deliberately keeping their currencies weak, while noting, “Japan totally opened up to the US.”

• On the European Union, he said there’s a “pretty good chance” for a trade deal and suggested the EU “may have to buy down their tariffs.” Discussions with the UK will involve “fine-tuning” a trade deal, though he warned there's “not a lot of wiggle room on steel and aluminum.”

• Tariffs remain central to Trump’s trade agenda. He said he’ll be sending close to 200 tariff letters, most with 10% duties, and some with 15%. He also reiterated his plan to use tariff revenue to provide rebates to Americans as part of any deal.

• When asked about his conversation with Israeli PM Netanyahu regarding aid drops, Trump acknowledged they spoke but described the conversation as “sort of disappointing” and declined to provide details.

Trump has “a lot of balls in the air,” signaling ongoing and overlapping efforts across trade, foreign policy, and economic issues with perhaps a little controversy from the Epstein files. His weekend trip will combine personal business regarding his golf courses as well as key meetings with UK, Ireland, EU leaders. Focus will be on making trade deals.

Looking at the EURUSD, it is trading below the 1.1750 level - little changed on the day - after an up-and-down trading session. The pair extended back below its 100 hour moving average in the European session at 1.1736 on its way to a low at 1.1702 into the early US trading day. The decline may have been influenced by option expirations at the 1.1700 level. The price rebounded after getting within two pips of the 1.1700 strike price. The price is closing back above the 100 hour moving average, but only by a few pips as the market moves to neutral ahead of talks between Pres. Trump and EUs Ursula von der Leyen on trade in the United Kingdom this weekend. Trump put the odds of a deal at 50% but also said there were about 20 items to work through.

GBP/USD is pressured lower following disappointing UK retail sales data, reinforcing the pound’s downtrend around 1.3430 Pres. Trump will also be meeting with Prime Minister Starmer during his work vacation. Of course the US in the UK already made a trade deal, but there's always room for improvement. For the GBPUSD it Traded lower for most the day, with little in the way of corrections. The price is closing below its 100 hour moving average at 1.3511, in its 200 hour moving average at 1.34637. The 200 hour moving average will be a close risk level going into the new trading week.

On the economic calendar today, the U.S. Advanced Durable Goods Report for June 2025 showed a sharp decline, with total orders falling 9.3%, a better result than the expected –10.8% drop. This comes after a massive +16.5% gain in May (revised from +16.4%)—the largest increase since July 2014. The June decline was the worst monthly performance since April 2020, driven largely by a 22.4% plunge in transportation equipment, which accounted for a $32.6 billion drop.

Despite the steep headline number, underlying components were more stable:

• Ex-transportation: +0.2% (vs. +0.1% expected; prior revised up to +0.6%)

• Ex-defense: –9.4% (prior: +15.7%, revised from +15.5%)

• Core capital goods (non-defense ex-aircraft): –0.7% (vs. +0.2% expected; prior revised to +2.0%)

This sharp month-over-month volatility reflects the outsized impact of big-ticket items like aircraft and defense orders—sectors central to President Trump’s trade agenda, which emphasizes boosting U.S.-made exports through tariff-driven deals. These categories are likely to remain volatile as policy drives order timing and scale.

Looking ahead, the factory orders report due in a week or so will provide revised figures and further insight into June's manufacturing activity. Traders and policymakers alike will be watching for signs of whether the underlying trend remains stable despite the month’s headline decline.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model held steady with a 2.4% growth estimate for Q2 2025, unchanged from its previous projection. According to the Fed, there were no significant revisions to the forecasts for any major GDP subcomponents following this week’s data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors. This suggests moderate and stable economic growth heading into the summer.

The final GDPNow estimate will be released on Tuesday, July 29, ahead of the official “advance” Q2 GDP report scheduled for Wednesday, July 30 at 8:30 AM ET. That BEA release will provide the first official look at overall U.S. economic performance in the second quarter and could be a key market mover.

U.S. stock indices closed higher on the day and week, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ both setting new record closing highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also gained and is now just 113 points shy of its all-time closing high, after coming within four points of that level earlier in the week before pulling back.

All four major indices posted weekly gains, led by the S&P.

Friday’s Closing Snapshot:

• Dow: +208.01 points (+0.47%) at 44,901.92

• S&P 500: +25.29 points (+0.40%) at 6,388.64

• NASDAQ: +50.36 points (+0.24%) at 21,108.32

• Russell 2000: +8.93 points (+0.40%) at 2,261.06

Weekly Performance:

• Dow: +1.26%

• S&P 500: +1.46%

• NASDAQ: +1.02%

• Russell 2000: +0.94%

The strong close reflects continued optimism around tech earnings, resilient economic data, and anticipation of next week’s Fed decision and GDP release.

Next week is shaping up to be an absolute tidal wave of market-moving events— the biggest of the quarter. At the center of it all is the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday at 2 PM ET, followed by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM. While no rate change is expected, the tone of the Fed and Powell’s guidance will be closely scrutinized. Later in the week on Friday, U.S. employment report, which includes nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings will be released and analyzed. These releases could shape expectations for rate policy into the fall. Also important:

• Q2 Advance GDP on Wednesday morning (estimated +2.5%),
• Core PCE inflation on Thursday, and
• ISM Manufacturing PMI on Friday.

Meanwhile, central banks in Canada, and Japan are also on deck, with no changes expected but plenty of room for surprises.

On the earnings front, it’s a blockbuster lineup featuring four of the Magnificent 7—Meta, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon—alongside household names like UnitedHealth, Boeing, Merck, Visa, Starbucks, MasterCard, ExxonMobil, and Chevron. The calendar kicks off Monday with Waste Management, then accelerates into a high-stakes earnings gauntlet through Friday. Whether it’s big tech, big oil, healthcare, or consumer staples—no sector is left untouched. With this dense mix of macro and micro catalysts, next week will test markets on every front: rates, inflation, labor, growth, and corporate profitability. Buckle up.